2025 Order of Merit: Player predictions - Alan Duncan
EuroDov Reporter
Monday 16 December 2024
As we approach the new year, thoughts begin to turn to the start of the new season in April and whilst the EuroDov Cup, the season opening event and Major, is the first event of the calendar year, for many the St Andrews Open and the start of the Order of merit is the signal the season is here.
The Order of Merit enters its 5th year in 2025 and has matured and settled into the premier event of the EuroDov Tour calendar. In 2025 16 players will compete to win the James Braid Quaich, the field boasts five Major winners and nine players who have at least one Order of Merit event win to their name and with four prize money spots and two relegation places at play every player needs to be on form to contend.
EuroDov Reporter has taken time to sit down and look at each individual player and assess their prospects ahead of 2025. So, sit back, and enjoy their reviews.
We’re going to tackle this in alphabetical order so the first player under the looking glass is Alan Duncan.
Duncan made his debut in the 2017 RyDov Cup and made appearances at the 2018 and 2023 EuroDov Cup, but it wasn’t until the 2023 Order of Merit season that Alan Duncan took up his Tour card with a vengeance.
Duncan is a colourful character on Tour, his attire as dramatic and loud as his golf and he never ceases to entertain the crowds or the field. Whilst his game is often on the edge of chaos, the excitement comes from knowing he has the potential to play great golf and when he does, he can compete with the best out here on Tour.
Nothing typifies this more than his first round he ever played in the Order of Merit and his last round of 2024.
Making his debut at the St Andrews Open in 2023 there was very little pressure on him to perform, follow a T6th finish in the Open de Cascais where he finished 13 shots off the lead after day 3.
However, Duncan came out and blew the field away with a tournament record 5-under 65. His game was flawless from start to finish, only dropping 3 shots the entire day on his way to a resounding victory.
Fast forward 13 Order of Merit events later and Alan Duncan lay on the cusp of relegation to Q-School. After a disastrous open round at the Tour Championships, Duncan knew only the finest rounds in the afternoon would save him from relegation at the end of the day.
He opened his afternoon account with a birdie-birdie-eagle combo to surge up the leader board and after all was said and done, he shot the best score of the afternoon by 4 strokes in a round that included an 8 on his card, pulling himself from 13th to 5th on the leaderboard and securing his future in the Order of Merit.
We know Duncan has a high ceiling; he is after all one of the nine players in the 2025 field who already have a win to their name. But looking at the overall standings there is a significant question and concern around consistency. In his 2 seasons in the OoM Duncan has managed an 11th and 6th place finish in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
Whilst the Order of Merit is made up of 8 distinct events, the ultimate prize at the end, the James Braid Quaich, is the culmination of a year’s work with consistency the key to success. It is hard to argue Alan Duncan will not win an individual event, he has after all done it, but with an average finishing position per tournament of 8th he’ll struggle to win from there.
Duncan’s 2024 season had some really good performances, a third place in St Andrew’s, 5th place at Canmore and a 5th place in the Tour Champs, but it was also marred by a 12th place at Burntisland, 10th at Pitffirane and a 14th at Kinghorn.
With an average finishing position per event of 8th Alan Duncan would amass 4000 points on the season, to put this in perspective that would be good enough for 10th in 2022, 9th in 2023 and 9th in 2024. Safe from relegation all three years but quite a distance from the prize positions at the top of the table.
So, let’s look at 2025 and EuroDov’s predictions. Duncan has a high side, he’s shown it, but he’s struggled to show it consistently throughout the year, and event by event, you never know what Alan Duncan might turn up.
Looking at the 2025 field, and Alan’s track record it’s hard to see him finishing in the top half of the OoM, so a ceiling of 9th feels like a realistic position.
Looking at the other end the floor does seem pretty low. He avoided relegation off the back of a 27-shot swing from morning to afternoon which was the sole reason he managed to stay in the Order of Merit. It was a miraculous recovery, and the truth is miracles just don’t happen that often.
With all this in mind EuroDov Reporter’s prediction for 2025 is Alan Duncan to finish 16th and relegated to Q-School.